The Long Island Ducks are one win from a championship, and the win is there to be taken tonight, at home. Game 3 of the Atlantic League Championship Series starts at 6:35 p.m. at Fairfield Properties Ballpark in Central Islip, with the Ducks leading the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs two games to none in the best-of-five series. Take one of the next three and the trophy stays on Long Island. Take tonight's and nobody has to come back tomorrow.

How they built the 2-0 lead

The Ducks did the hard part on the road. In Tuesday's opener at Regency Furniture Stadium in Maryland, they held on for a 6-4 win. Thursday afternoon they made it look easier, an 8-4 win built on one of the best starts of their postseason: Anthony Escobar threw seven scoreless innings, scattering five hits and striking out four.

The bats did the rest. Rene Pinto drove in four runs, three of them on a 379-foot home run, and Henry Kusiak had three hits and two RBIs. By the time Southern Maryland's runs arrived, the game was out of reach.

That sent the series north with the Ducks needing one win and holding home field for every remaining game. Games 3, 4 and 5, as many as are needed, are all in Central Islip.

Tonight's matchup

The ball goes to left-hander Nick Margevicius, who has been close to untouchable this postseason with a 1.13 ERA and a win in his playoff work so far. Southern Maryland counters with right-hander Andrew Thurman, trying to keep the Blue Crabs' season alive.

Gates open at 5:35 p.m., and 5:20 for season ticket holders. Tickets are available at the ballpark box office, by phone at 631-940-TIXX and online through the team. For anyone staying dry at home, the game streams on Dugout TV through the HomeTeam Network.

What a win would mean

A championship would be the fifth in franchise history and the first since 2019, joining the banners from 2004, 2012, 2013 and that last run seven years ago. This season already carried one milestone: sweeping the Hagerstown Flying Boxcars in the North Division Championship Series gave the franchise its tenth division title and its first since 2021.

The chance to watch it happen in person is the rarer thing. Playoff baseball in Central Islip only comes around every few years, and a clincher at home, with the ballpark full and the season on the line in the ninth, is the kind of night fans replay for decades.

The weather is the other opponent

There is a practical reason to hope this ends tonight. A nor'easter is bearing down on the Island, and the National Weather Service has posted coastal flood warnings for both counties running from 6 p.m. Friday, essentially first pitch, through Sunday evening, with high surf and gusty winds along the South Shore.

If the series goes long, Game 4 is Saturday at 6:35 p.m. and Game 5 is Sunday at 5:05 p.m., both in Central Islip and both squarely inside the storm window. Whether those games would be played as scheduled is a question nobody at the ballpark wants to have to answer. The cleanest forecast of the weekend is tonight's, and the Ducks can make the rest of it moot in nine innings.

For a franchise that has been selling affordable baseball to Long Island families since 2000, the math tonight is unusually simple. One win, at home, and the season ends with a championship, with the whole Island ahead of the storm instead of under it.